South Africa has often been criticised for its inability to move from production to manufacturing. We export iron ore and import steel. We export sugar and import it to meet demand. We export maize and import rice. If we are afraid of losing we will never be good at winning, so we would rather not enter the arena.
Around 35,000 jobs are at risk in the citrus sector because of a 30% tariff on imports from South Africa. Willie van Straaten once introduced me to TRIZ, the Russian model that holds that the solution to the problem lies within the problem. So what if the problem was not tariffs, but the oranges? Instead of focusing on the 30%, what if we focused on the 97,000 tonnes?
The world of oranges
- South Africa is the second biggest citrus exporter in the world, after Spain.
- In 2024 South Africa exported 164.5 million cartons of citrus, roughly 2.5 million tonnes.
- The US imported close to 97,000 tonnes of our citrus, about 5% to 6% of annual production.
- Export earnings were estimated at R1.9 billion, with around 35,000 jobs at risk.
Think differently about tariffs
If we focus on tariffs, we spend our energy repairing relations. If we focus on the oranges, everything changes. If 10 million South Africans bought one 3kg bag of oranges a week for four weeks, that is 120,000 tonnes. In four weeks, 15.6% of the population could consume 23,000 tonnes more oranges than our entire annual export to the US.
"Everything changes when you change your starting point, challenge the assumptions, or redefine the problem statement."
This is not offered as a solution. It is a different lens, a reminder that reframing a problem surfaces opportunities that the original framing hides completely.
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